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Added August 13, 2026

Editor's Note

The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz sections of this report were originally written based on conditions as of June 17, 2026, when a ceasefire had reopened the strait and oil prices were falling. That ceasefire broke down in July, and the conflict has continued since. We've revised the relevant sections below to reflect current conditions as of this date. The rest of the report's findings, including our marketplace data and regional outlooks, remain unchanged.

In January, Liquidity Services published the 2026 Energy Surplus Asset Market Trends Report, detailing a surplus asset market shaped by capital discipline, non-core divestitures, rising surplus volumes, and a gas-weighted secondary equipment cycle. Six months in, the scorecard is notable: the core structural predictions made are materializing, but the rules of the game have changed fast and are changing again.

The military conflict with Iran, which began on February 28, sent Brent crude from roughly $65/bbl to a peak of $126.41 on April 30 (Britannica 2026). A ceasefire and memorandum of understanding signed June 19 briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. That agreement collapsed in July. Iran resumed attacks on tankers using routes it had not authorized, the U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and fighting continued into August. As of this writing, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority maintains the strait is blocked, negotiations remain deadlocked, and strait traffic sits near three-month lows despite U.S. claims of control over the waterway. Brent has settled in the high $80s, well below the April peak but volatile, rising again over the past week as tensions flared.

For oil and gas operators managing surplus assets, the conditions created by the conflict are not unwinding. They are proving more durable than either side expected in June. Elevated war-risk insurance costs constrained new equipment supply chains, and strong buyer demand for regional, ready-to-deploy assets remain in place because the underlying disruption remains in place. The operator waiting for certainty before bringing assets to market is waiting for a resolution that has already failed once. The operator who moves now is pricing in the world as it actually is, not the world the June ceasefire promised.

Capital Discipline and Non-Core Divestitures Are Accelerating

The January 2026 report anticipated that oil and gas operators would continue to prioritize portfolio rationalization over mega-mergers, shedding non-core assets and midlife fields to fund higher-return core positions. This is precisely what has unfolded. U.S. upstream M&A deal value dropped to $9.7 billion in Q3 2025, marking three consecutive quarterly declines, driven by persistently soft crude prices in the first part of the period that kept many private equity sellers on the sidelines.

Ovintiv provides the clearest case study. In February 2026, to accelerate debt reduction and concentrate capital in its Montney and Permian core positions, the company announced the $3.0 billion sale of substantially all of its Anadarko Basin position: approximately 360,000 net acres producing about 90,000 boe/d as of February. The deal closed in April 2026 with CEO Brendan McCracken noting it "completes the transformation of our portfolio and our balance sheet." And with the sale, the assets, equipment, and infrastructure associated with those positions flow into secondary markets as the operator exits, substantiating the surplus cycle our report described (Ovintiv 2026).

A similar pattern is visible across midstream and gas-linked operators. Shell, Antero, Diversified Energy, and NextEra have all executed or advanced divestitures of non-core gas and mid-life fields, channeling compressors, processing units, and pipeline segments into secondary channels.

Surplus Asset Volumes Are Rising from Consolidation

Portfolio high grading by acquiring core and divesting non-core assets, structurally generates surplus. Every basin exit, facility decommission, and fleet rationalization produces drilling equipment, production systems, and midstream infrastructure that operators no longer want to operate, and secondary buyers want to own. The January prediction that consolidation would drive surplus volume growth has proven accurate and is accelerating.

Liquidity Services' own Energy sub-segment data through Q1 and Q2 FY2026 validates this at the transaction level: unique seller activity increased 47% year-over-year, and bid activity rose 46%, even against a backdrop of somewhat constrained inventory compared to 2024 (Liquidity Services 2026a). When bid density rises faster than seller inventory, it is an unambiguous signal: demand is outpacing supply, and sellers are achieving stronger outcomes.

Gas-Weighted Assets Remain Central to Surplus Flows

In January we identified LNG export growth and domestic power demand, particularly from data centers and manufacturing, as the twin forces concentrating activity in gas-weighted asset classes: wells, pipelines, compressors, and treatment plants. That forecast is well-supported by 2026 activity.

Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG expansion and broad-based growth in LNG infrastructure are continuing to drive operators toward targeted divestitures of older gas assets. Natural gas deal flow is accelerating, underpinned by Haynesville, Marcellus, and Anadarko activity. Saudi Aramco is targeting an 80% increase in sales gas production capacity by 2030 over its 2021 baseline, now confirmed with the Jafurah unconventional gas field and Tanajib Gas Plant startups. This is increasing global demand for new gas infrastructure and channeling older assets into secondary markets.

Digitally Enabled Assets Command a Premium

The January report highlighted digital twins and data-integrated assets as emerging premium categories — equipment buyers are willing to pay more for hardware with documented operating histories and integration-ready control systems. This has proven correct. The 2025 EY Future of Energy Survey found that 50% of oil and gas and chemicals companies were already using digital twins to manage assets, with 92% either implementing, planning, or developing new applications (EY 2025). The market for digital twins in oil and gas is growing fast off a small base, from about $137 million in 2024 toward roughly $1.1 billion by 2033, a CAGR of 26.5% (Astute Analytica 2025).

For surplus asset sellers, the practical implication is clear. Equipment with a documented history of digital integration, accessible data records, and control-system compatibility commands a meaningful premium over otherwise comparable hardware. Condition documentation is no longer just good housekeeping; it is a value driver.

What we got Right

Our January 2026 report made specific, verifiable predictions. Here is what we got right at the halfway mark of 2026.

Where the January 2026 Forecast Requires Revision

Oil Prices: a Spike, a Ceasefire, and a Rapidly Shifting Baseline

We began 2026 reporting on a Brent forecast of approximately $55–$60/bbl, with global inventory builds of 1.8–2.2 mb/d expected to pressure capex and push more assets into distressed surplus. That baseline was overtaken by events that no commercial forecast reliably predicted.

The military conflict with Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent to an April 30 peak of $126.41 per barrel, its highest level since March 2022 (Britannica 2026). The loss of Gulf supply through Hormuz was the immediate spike driver. The UAE's exit from the OPEC+ framework, announced April 28 and effective May 1, added structural uncertainty to the market, though analysts noted its near-term price impact was limited because Emirati exports were constrained by the same Hormuz closure (Al Jazeera 2026). Hand in hand with the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and about one-fifth of global LNG trade, while also accounting for more than one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade, one of the most severe energy market disruptions in years was triggered (EIA 2026).

A memorandum of understanding signed June 19 briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz and suspended sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Brent fell roughly 35% from its April peak in response. That relief was short-lived. The ceasefire broke down in July after Iran attacked commercial vessels using routes outside the agreed framework, and the U.S. reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Fighting has continued since, and as of August 2026, Hormuz remains effectively disrupted, with Iranian authorities asserting the strait is closed and traffic reduced to roughly a quarter of pre-war levels by some estimates.

Brent has stabilized in the high $80s, a meaningful drop from the April peak but not the return to normal the June agreement implied. Markets appear to be pricing in a prolonged, lower-intensity conflict rather than either a full resolution or a return to peak-crisis disruption. War-risk insurance premiums for Hormuz transits remain elevated at 7.5% to 10% of hull value, roughly four to five times pre-war levels, and continue to reprice with each new incident. The lesson for surplus sellers: this is not a spike that is correcting. It is an unsettled baseline.

We reported in January that rising surplus supply would generally depress secondary-market pricing for oil and gas equipment. In practice, 2026 has produced a sharply bifurcated market that this broad-brush characterization misses:

Asset Category 2026 Pricing Direction Key Driver
Older land rigs, low-spec tubulars, standard pressure-pumping units Softer, discount pricing Fleet rationalization, technology upgrades
High-spec offshore rigs, subsea systems, LNG-ready equipment Firm to elevated War-driven LNG demand, constrained project lead times
FPSOs and mid-spec offshore platforms (Gulf/Middle East exposed) Mixed — pressure from war-risk insurance Insurers exiting coverage, repositioning to other regions
High-spec, corrosion-resistant tubulars and subsea valves Tight supply, strong resale values New offshore and LNG project demand

U.S. Supply and the Rig Count Picture

The January report positioned the U.S. as a driver of global oversupply. While U.S. production hit record highs in late 2025, the combination of OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical disruptions significantly muted the inventory-build effect. The Baker Hughes rig count for the week ending July 2, 2026, stood at 540 rigs (Baker Hughes 2026). The year-over-year gap is at its narrowest since January 2026, with the Anadarko and Permian each adding rigs while Gulf of Mexico activity softened slightly. The "high production drives oversupply drives asset fire sales" chain did not materialize. Elevated oil prices sustained investment, kept more equipment in service, and deferred large-scale distressed surplus flows. As prices normalize toward the $80–$90 range, that dynamic will shift.

Global Surplus Asset Markets: a Mid-Year Regional View

Compliance-Energy

Strong investment in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, including major deepwater expansions, is absorbing high-spec drilling rigs, subsea trees, and tubulars, keeping the secondary market for premium hardware tight. The elevated oil price environment underpins continued investment in the Permian, Bakken, and Gulf of Mexico, though prices are now declining as the Iran conflict moves toward resolution. At the same time, older land rigs, legacy pressure-pumping equipment, and lower-generation drilling tools are entering the surplus and rental markets as operators rationalize their fleets and upgrade to electrified and automated systems.

Unlock-Capital-Energy

In Europe, North Sea and Mediterranean projects are driving demand for offshore infrastructure, while older North Sea platforms, pipelines, and topsides are being decommissioned or sold as surplus, creating recurring secondary-market inventory. Saudi Aramco's confirmed 80% expansion of gas production capacity by 2030 is driving investment in new upstream and midstream infrastructure across the Arabian Peninsula, while phasing out older rigs and surface equipment. War-risk insurance surges that drove equipment repositioning away from Gulf-anchored assets during the conflict have not eased. Premiums remain elevated and volatile as fighting continues, and operators should plan around sustained disruption rather than near-term normalization.

Return-Energy

APAC is the fastest-growing region for oilfield equipment demand, led by deepwater activity in China, India, Indonesia, Australia, and Malaysia. With over 80–90% of Gulf-origin crude destined for Asia traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, the region was acutely exposed to disruption during the conflict. This compressed margins for import-reliant refiners and drives strong buyer interest in regionally sourced secondary equipment. That urgency has not eased. The peace framework announced in June did not hold, and renewed disruption to Gulf shipping keeps import-reliant APAC refiners exposed. For sellers, APAC buyers remain an active, well-funded audience for high-spec equipment, and current conditions give that demand no near-term reason to soften. For sellers, APAC buyers remain an active, well-funded audience for high-spec equipment, particularly as regional operators continue building out deepwater capacity independent of Middle East supply dynamics.

North America
EMEA
APAC

The Iran Conflict: What it Created and What Comes Next

The June ceasefire and reopening were expected to unwind the conditions that created a seller's market. They didn't. The agreement broke down within weeks, and the conflict has continued at a lower but persistent intensity since. Brent has settled well below its April peak but remains volatile, and war-risk insurance costs have stayed elevated through repeated cycles of de-escalation and renewed attacks.

This changes the read for sellers. The original thesis, that this was a temporary spike sellers should move ahead of before it corrected, assumed an end date that has now passed without resolution. The more accurate read is that Gulf-linked disruption has become a structural feature of the market for the second half of 2026, not a closing window. Equipment repositioning out of Gulf-exposed regions continues. Buyer demand for regionally sourced, ready-to-deploy assets remains strong for the same reason it was strong in the spring: shipping through the Gulf carries real, ongoing risk and cost.

What the Conflict Created

The conflict drove Brent above $100 for roughly six weeks, constrained new equipment supply chains, and pushed war-risk insurance costs for Gulf-region shipping up more than 1,000%. The result was a seller's market: buyers competing for available assets, resale values firm to elevated for high-spec equipment, and a distinct category of surplus created by operators repositioning Gulf- and Middle East-anchored rigs, FPSOs, and LNG assets to less geopolitically exposed locations. These repositioned assets carry strong residual values and are well-suited to a competitive global auction.

What Resolution Means

The peace framework announced was expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and suspend sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Brent dropped to the low $80s in response, down roughly 35% from the peak (Al Jazeera 2026; Trading Economics 2026). The conditions that created the seller's window are unwinding.

This does not mean the opportunity disappears. Saudi Aramco's CEO has stated that market normalization will take months, regardless of how quickly the Strait reopens, and could extend into 2027 if the reopening is delayed (Reuters 2026; CNBC 2026). Infrastructure damage across Gulf refineries and pipelines, depleted inventories, and lingering shipping uncertainty mean the transition will be uneven. Equipment repositioning continues. Buyer demand remains strong. But the price tailwind is shifting to a headwind, and it is moving quickly.

Two-Tier Market for Pipes, Valves, and Modular Plants

High-spec corrosion-resistant tubulars and subsea valves remain in tight supply due to new offshore and LNG project activity; resale values remain elevated. Standard onshore pipe, older skid-mounted processing plants, and used valves are being released as operators standardize on newer, lower-emission equipment — creating growing but lower-value secondary-market inventory. When new equipment supply chains are strained, the well-maintained surplus asset is still the fastest path to operational continuity.

Liquidity Services' Energy Marketplace: Q1–Q2 FY2026 Performance

Liquidity Services' overall Q2 FY2026 results demonstrate the health of the marketplace model that energy sellers depend on. Gross merchandise volume grew 6% year-over-year to $389.9 million, revenue rose 4% to $120.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA jumped 37%, reflecting the operating leverage of a well-functioning two-sided marketplace. Registered buyers on the platform reached approximately 6.3 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, and completed transactions rose 9% to approximately 280,000 (Liquidity Services 2026b).

Within the Liquidity Services Capital Assets Group, the Energy sub-segment delivered what may be its strongest performance in recent memory through Q1 and Q2 FY2026:

  • Unique sellers increased 47% year-over-year — confirming that the divestiture and portfolio rationalization cycle anticipated in the January report is now flowing through auction channels in volume
  • Bid activity increased 46% year-over-year — even against a backdrop of somewhat tighter inventory relative to 2024

When bid density outpaces seller inventory growth this significantly, the market is communicating something clear: buyers want more equipment than is currently available. For energy operators holding idle or surplus assets, this is the most favorable demand environment in years. The combination of geopolitically driven equipment repositioning, consolidation-driven portfolio exits, and an increasingly qualified global buyer network creates conditions in which the disciplined seller achieves outcomes well above what an internal sales process or regional broker can deliver.

 

Q2 FY26 vs. Q2 FY25

46%

Increase in bid activity

46% increase in bid activity
6.3M registered buyers
280K completed transactions (+9%)

What This Means for Energy Asset Sellers in H2 2026

The conflict created a window that has not closed, because the conflict has not ended. Operators still deciding whether to bring surplus assets to market are not weighing a temporary premium against an approaching correction. They are weighing current, real disruption against the possibility that a durable resolution eventually arrives, on a timeline that has already slipped once.

Brent has dropped more than 35% from its April peak but has not returned to pre-war levels, and it moved higher again over the past week as Hormuz tensions resurfaced. War-risk insurance remains elevated. The seller bringing quality assets to market now is not racing a clock. They're operating in the conditions that exist, rather than waiting on a resolution this report, and the market, expected months ago.

Know Your Asset Category

The bifurcated pricing environment still applies. High-spec offshore equipment, LNG-ready systems, and digitally integrated assets remain in a sellers' market. Demand for these categories is structural, not purely conflict driven. Older, non-spec land equipment can still be monetized effectively, but through competitive global auction formats that drive bid density rather than regional or bilateral sales.

Documentation Drives Value

Equipment with clean maintenance records, accessible operating histories, and documented condition commands a measurable premium. Before bringing assets to market, invest in documentation.

Partner for Global Reach

The buyer pool for energy surplus is genuinely global and includes APAC operators building out deepwater capacity, Latin American and African operators absorbing repositioned rigs, and domestic buyers upgrading aging fleets. Reaching that buyer pool requires a global marketplace with verified, sector-qualified buyers.

Liquidity Services operates the world's largest industrial asset marketplace, with 27 years of cultivating energy sector buyers, a buyer network exceeding 6.3 million registered participants, and deep expertise across every major energy asset category — from line pipe and oil country tubular goods to gas compression packages, drilling rigs, subsea systems, refinery units, and power generation equipment. The Energy Investment Recovery Program is designed to convert idle equipment into working capital with no upfront program cost — the proceeds from asset sales fund the service itself.

Idle equipment is stranded capital. And unlike fine wine, surplus assets do not improve with age — conditions deteriorate, documentation disappears, and newer technologies erode the value of yesterday's models. The seller's window created by the conflict is narrowing. The cost of delay is real and rising.

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Disclaimer: The information in this report, including all references to oil prices, the status of the U.S.-Iran conflict, and related market conditions, was accurate as of June 17, 2026. The situation in Iran and the broader Middle East remains fluid. Details regarding the ceasefire framework, the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, and any related agreements may change after publication. Readers should verify current conditions. Liquidity Services makes no representation that the information will remain accurate after the date noted above.

Resources and Research

Al Jazeera (2026). Stock markets soar, oil falls as US and Iran announce framework to end war. June 15, 2026. See also “UAE quits OPEC: What that means for the Gulf, energy markets and beyond,” April 29, 2026. Note: specific ceasefire terms reported via Iranian state media (Mehr) and not independently confirmed by U.S. officials at time of publication.
Astute Analytica (2025). Digital Twin in Oil & Gas Market: Industry Dynamics, Market Size and Opportunity Forecast to 2033. November 2025. Market valued at approximately $137 million in 2024, projected to reach roughly $1.1 billion by 2033 at a 26.5% CAGR.
Baker Hughes (2026). North America Rig Count, week ending July 2, 2026.
Britannica (2026). 2026 Iran war. Updated June 15, 2026. Reports the June 19 signing date and 60-day timeline.
CNBC (2026). Oil prices today: Brent, WTI rise as Iran tensions escalate. May 11, 2026.
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) (2026). World Oil Transit Chokepoints: Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and about one-fifth of global LNG trade transit the Strait of Hormuz.
EY (2025). Future of Energy Survey. Digital twin adoption findings among oil and gas and chemicals companies: 50% already using digital twins to manage assets, with 92% implementing, planning, or developing new applications.
Liquidity Services (2026a). Internal transaction data, Capital Assets Group, Energy sub-segment, Q1–Q2 FY2026.
Liquidity Services (2026b). Q2 FY2026 Financial Results (gross merchandise volume, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, registered buyers, completed transactions). Company financial disclosure.
Ovintiv Inc (2026). $3.0 billion Anadarko Basin divestiture, announced February 17, 2026 and closed in the second quarter of 2026. Approximately 360,000 net acres representing substantially all of Ovintiv’s Anadarko position, producing about 90,000 boe/d month-to-date in February (roughly 27,000 bbl/d oil and condensate, 240 MMcf/d gas, 23,000 bbl/d NGLs). Company disclosure and public statements, including CEO Brendan McCracken’s remarks. Reported by World Oil, BOE Report, and Journal of Petroleum Technology, February 17-18, 2026.
Reuters (2026). Barclays cuts Brent price forecasts for 2026 and 2027. June 26, 2026. Barclays cut its Brent forecasts to $96/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl for 2027, citing the recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trading Economics (2026). Brent crude oil – Price – Chart – Historical Data – News. Accessed June 15, 2026. Brent closed at $83.01/bbl on June 15, 2026, down 4.95% day-over-day.

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